North American containerboard prices have risen a net $100 per short ton through June 2026, driven by two rounds of producer hikes and roughly 10% (~3.9 million tons) of US capacity permanently retired since early 2025. Kraft paper (non-exchange-traded, assessment-based pricing) is in a structural supply tightening cycle. Rising OCC costs (+12% MoM in the US Southeast), strong e-commerce demand, and EU PPWR plastic substitution provide multiple demand pillars. This report analyzes pricing dynamics, supply-demand balance, trade policy risks, and forward contracting strategy across three scenarios for H2 2026.
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