The kraft paper and containerboard market is at a pivotal juncture. North American containerboard prices have risen $100/ton net in 2026 — the largest 6-month increase in four years — with Fastmarkets RISI recognizing the full $50/ton June hike for the first time since 2022. This price recovery is narrowing the divergence between falling pulp input costs (down 11% from August 2025 peak) and sticky containerboard transaction prices. The EU PPWR compliance deadline arrives on August 12, 2026 — 7 weeks away — structurally favoring paper packaging over plastics. BofA Securities signals potential for additional pricing movement in autumn 2026 or early 2027. This report analyzes containerboard pricing dynamics, supply-demand fundamentals, regional cost divergences, and forward contracting strategy across three scenarios for H2 2026.
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