The kraft paper and containerboard market is navigating a divergence: wood pulp input costs (50-60% of manufacturing cost) have declined 11% from their August 2025 peak, while corrugated paperboard prices have remained remarkably stable at PPI 352-354. This margin compression squeezes non-integrated sack converters while integrated producers maintain healthier margins. Paper industrial production rose to 182.2 in April 2026, up 10.8% year-over-year, signaling strengthening demand. E-commerce growth, EU packaging regulation (PPWR), and plastic substitution provide structural demand support. This report analyzes the input cost trajectory, supply-demand dynamics, regional pricing differences, and forward contracting strategy across three scenarios for H2 2026.
Sign in with a Pro plan to view the full intelligence report.