LNG Asia JKM Intelligence Report — August 12, 2026

BUYER: LOCK NOW

Asia Pacific LNG JKM front futures at $21.12/mmBtu (Aug 10) with spot assessment easing to $18.75 (Aug 6) — the first pullback since the Jul 7 re-escalation, but the winter risk premium is intact. A second Qatari LNG tanker (GasLog Shanghai) was struck in Hormuz on Aug 1; QatarEnergy force majeure now covers 24 cargoes to Edison alone through end-September and extends to October for other buyers. Hormuz transit collapsed to just 6 vessels on Aug 11 vs 130-140 pre-war. The CME forward curve prices winter at $21.08 (Dec-26) falling to $13.44 by Jun-27 — a $7.64 winter premium. EU storage at 54% vs an 80% Nov 1 target forces European competition for winter cargoes. Buyers should lock Q4 volume at $19-21 now; the shoulder-season dip is a window, not a trend reversal.

JKM Front Futures (JKMc1)

$21.12

Aug 10 · -$0.33 WoW

JKM Spot Assessment

$18.75

Aug 6 · -14.8% vs Jul 27

Pipeline Monthly

$11.80

World Bank Jul close

52W Range (Pipeline)

$11.10 - $15.65

YTD +2.7%

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Data status: JKM front from NYMEX JKMc1 futures (Aug 10, $21.12). Spot assessment $18.75 (Aug 6, third-party). Pipeline monthly from World Bank (Jul close, $11.80 — month-averaged, lags spot ~$9.3). Supply disruption data from IEA, Energy Aspects, Reuters, Bloomberg. Forecasts from CME forward curve, Goldman Sachs, EIA STEO. Verification labels: 16 FACT / 11 ESTIMATE.