Market diagnosis: The iron ore market is transitioning from balanced to surplus — Simandou (Guinea) has ramped exports faster than expected, adding 15-20 Mt of high-grade (65% Fe) supply in 2026, while China's crude steel output contracts ~3-4% YoY under policy-driven output caps. Port inventories at ~160 Mt (near all-time highs) confirm the oversupply. SGX futures at $98.90 (below $100 intraday) reflect consensus that $90-95/t is the 2026 equilibrium. This report provides quantified buyer guidance and scenario analysis for iron ore procurement.