CME HRC=F settled at $1,120/st on June 23, holding near recent highs as domestic mills sustain weekly price increases in a supply-constrained market. Nucor's spot at $1,125/st and CSI at $1,175/st reflect mill pricing power supported by 50% Section 232 tariffs and US capacity utilization at 81.1%. The impending EU safeguard overhaul on July 1 — cutting duty-free quotas to 18.3 Mt and doubling out-of-quota duties to 50% — represents the next major catalyst for Western steel markets. Global overcapacity at 640 Mt persists as the structural constraint: Chinese output fell 3.9% in early 2026 but remains elevated, with exports redirecting to markets without tariff protection. Morgan Stanley forecasts HRC to average $1,112/st for 2026 but decline to $900/st by 2028 as supply and imports rebalance.