SMU domestic hot band HRC settled at $1,145/st on June 26 — a multi-year high capping a 39-week rally that has added $360/st since October 2025. Nucor raised its CSP for the 24th consecutive week to $1,130/st on June 22, while CME deferred futures for August through October are touching $1,200/st. July 1, 2026 marks the most consequential trade policy day for steel since 2018: the EU's new safeguard regulation cuts duty-free quotas to 18.3 Mt with 50% out-of-quota duties, the UK introduces a parallel regime with lower quotas, and India's DGTR launched an anti-dumping investigation into HRC from China, Japan, and Russia on June 25. These simultaneous actions across three of the top five steel-consuming regions are reshaping global trade flows in real time. Morgan Stanley's latest forecast sees the supply-led rally nearing its peak, with 2026 averaging $1,112/st before declining to $900/st by 2028.