Market diagnosis: Gold's recovery is confirmed. The pipeline settlement froze at $4,452.00/oz on Aug 18, +11.7% off the July 16 close trough of $3,985.60, and fresher prints show the extension: Aug 21 spot at $4,617.18 and the strongest week since March (+5.4%) after Treasury expanded long-duration buybacks to $4bn+ per operation, the dollar fell to a 3-month low, and speculators rebuilt managed-money net longs 18% in three weeks to 141,648 contracts. The market reclaimed its 200-day average for the first time since the January peak. What holds the floor: record Q2 central bank buying of 289t (346t for H1), the first ETF inflow month since April (+23t in July to 4,068t), and Chinese imports running +138% y/y. The swing event is Jackson Hole on Aug 28: one October hike is still priced, and its removal is the unlock toward $4,800-5,300. Buyers should accumulate on dips toward $4,300-4,500 and avoid chasing above $4,600 into the event.
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