Gold Intelligence Report

Gold bounces 9.3% in a week to $4,408.10/oz, breaking the May-July consolidation band on a softer July jobs report and record Q2 central bank buying (289t). The correction from the January ATH appears to have bottomed at $3,959, and positioning is healthier than at any point since February. The September FOMC remains the swing event: a 76%-priced hike is the main near-term risk, while a dovish surprise would open $4,800-5,000. Buyers should maintain accumulation programs on dips toward $4,200-4,300 and hedge the September meeting.