Market diagnosis: Gold has corrected 25% from its January all-time high of $5,589/oz to $4,161/oz, the deepest retracement since 2013. The market bounced 4.3% from the June 24 low of $3,990 on a weaker USD and easing Fed rhetoric at Sintra. Central bank buying (244t in Q1 2026, +3% YoY) provides a structural floor, while near-record ETF holdings (~4,100t) create a tactical ceiling as flows remain choppy. The Goldman Sachs target cut ($5,400→$4,900) in June reflects fading ETF inflows and delayed rate cuts. Risk-reward favors opportunistic accumulation — downside limited by CB demand at $3,800-4,000, while geopolitical risk and eventual Fed easing drive upside to $5,000+. Structural support with tactical headwinds.