Market diagnosis: Gold has corrected 27% from its January all-time high of $5,589/oz to $4,077/oz, the largest retracement since the 2013 sell-off. Central bank buying (863t in 2025, 45% of CBs planning further additions) provides a structural floor, while ~298 tonnes of ETF gold held at underwater levels caps near-term recovery. The Goldman Sachs target cut on June 20 ($5,400→$4,900) reflects fading ETF inflows and delayed rate cuts to 2027. The risk-reward is asymmetric at these levels — downside limited by CB demand at $3,800-4,000 while a resumption of ETF buying could drive $5,000+. Structural support with tactical headwinds.