INTELLIGENCE REPORT
BUYER: DEFENSIVE

Copper Intelligence Report

August 24, 2026 · Intelligence Report · Copper (LME / COMEX / SHFE)

Market diagnosis: Copper printed its all-time-high close at $14,850/mt LME Cash on August 17 as a delivery squeeze climaxed - the cash-to-3M backwardation hit $545/t, the widest since 2021, with live LME warrants down to ~103,000 t. Then the squeeze UNWOUND. Into the August 19 third-Wednesday prompt, Trafigura and other houses delivered more than 55,000 t into LME warehouses; backwardation collapsed to $176/t, LME stocks rebounded 17% off the trough, and 3M closed Friday at $14,111.50 - the first weekly decline in eight weeks. What did NOT unwind: spot treatment charges at a record -$175.7/t, Chinese refined output falling year-on-year for the first time in years (-3.18% in July), Grasberg's 2026 loss revised up to 313 kt, Las Bambas suspended after a fatal accident, and the Section 232 refined-cathode decision still unresolved after Commerce missed its June 30 deadline. The squeeze premium is exiting; the structural floor is intact. Buyers should lock 60-70% of Q4 on dips toward $13,500-14,000 and keep 30-40% flexible into the tariff binary.

LME Cash
$14,850
$/mt · Aug 17 close · ATH
LME 3M
$14,315
$/mt · Bwdn $535 → $176
COMEX
$6.58
$/lb · Aug 21 · ~$14,506/mt
SHFE
CNY 107,570
CNY/mt · Aug 21, 2026
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Full report loaded below with 17 sections, 5 charts, and quantified scenario framework. Verified: 5 FACT · Estimated: 15 ESTIMATE