Market diagnosis: Copper is testing its January all-time high at $14,240/mt LME Cash with a $148/t backwardation — the deepest prompt-tightness signal in ten months. The August breakout from the six-month $12,500-$14,000 range is tariff-driven: traders rushed metal into the US ahead of a pending Section 232 refined-copper decision, pushing COMEX inventories to a record ~651kt (69% of visible stocks) and draining LME and SHFE warehouses. LME on-warrant stock at ~223kt is a five-month low, down 27.5% in 30 days; SHFE deliverable stock nearly halved in July to ~69kt. The Commerce recommendation (15% from Jan 2027, 30% from Jan 2028) was delivered June 30 but the President has not acted — the binary catalyst remains unresolved as of August 10. ING warns part of the rally is tariff-expectation premium that could unwind if the decision is delayed, narrowed, or exempts refined copper. Concentrate economics remain the tightest link: 2026 benchmark TC/RC at $0/t (record low), spot at -$78.50 to -$220/t. Buyers should lock 60-70% of Q3-Q4 at current levels and keep 25-30% flexible for the tariff binary.