Market diagnosis: Copper markets are trading at $13,617/mt LME Cash in a flat term structure — the first neutral backwardation since the contango regime began in March 2026. After consolidating in the $12,500-$14,000 range for six months, the flat curve signals a market at equilibrium between acute concentrate scarcity (~900kt total mine supply losses through 2026) and pending tariff catalyst resolution. The Section 232 tariff decision (Commerce recommended 15% from Jan 2027, 30% from Jan 2028 on June 30) remains pending — this is the defining binary catalyst for H2 2026. COMEX stocks at a record 652kt confirm the US stockpiling effect, but LME stocks at 107,850t (ex-US, 7-month low) with >50% cancelled warrants signal genuine physical tightness outside the US. The ICSG +96kt surplus revision (April) persists as the bearish counterweight against bank deficit models (UBS: -520kt, ING: -35kt). Buyers should lock 75% of Q3-Q4 at current flat forward levels, keeping 25% flexible for the post-tariff catalyst.