Market diagnosis: Copper markets remain in a $12,500-$14,000 consolidation range at $13,373.5/mt LME Cash, held aloft by acute concentrate scarcity and mine supply disruptions totaling ~900kt through 2026. The ICSG April surplus revision to +96kt for 2026 contrasts with bank deficits (Goldman: -640kt ex-US, ING: -600kt). The Section 122 tariff expired July 24 representing the next binary catalyst. LME stocks at 296.6kt continue their drawdown (18-day downtrend). COMEX at a record 652kt reflects tariff-driven stockpiling. The key tension: markets price a deficit premium but lack a new near-term catalyst to break above $14,000. Chile's winter storm in mid-July added a fresh disruption catalyst. This report provides quantified scenario analysis with procurement-specific guidance.