Market diagnosis: Copper markets are consolidating near all-time highs at $13,408.5/mt LME Cash, held aloft by acute concentrate scarcity and mine supply disruptions totaling ~900kt through 2026. The ICSG surplus revision to +96kt for 2026 has been rejected in practice by bank models (BofA: -350kt, JPM: -330kt, BMI: -400kt deficit). The 50% Section 232 tariff remains in place with the June 8 adjustment modifying the product threshold. The key tension: the market is pricing partial deficit-premium but lacks a new near-term catalyst to break above $14,000. Section 122 tariffs expire July 24, representing a potential catalyst. This report provides quantified scenario analysis with procurement-specific guidance.