Market diagnosis: Copper markets face a narrowing window before tomorrow's binary Section 232 decision. LME cash at $13,287/mt (June 29) reflects a market consolidating ahead of the June 30 Commerce report — the single most important catalyst for copper pricing in the next 12 months. Mine supply losses continue to mount: Grasberg (591kt through 2026), Kamoa-Kakula flooding, Oyu Tolgoi export blockade (June 17), and the new CMOC TFM strike in DRC have pushed TC/RC to extreme negative levels. Goldman Sachs raised its YE target to $13,735/mt and Citi turned bullish at $14,500. This report provides procurement-specific guidance with quantified scenario analysis for the post-June 30 environment.