Market diagnosis: Copper markets remain structurally tight but face a shifting risk premium after the US-Iran peace agreement (June 18) reopened the Strait of Hormuz, removing a key supply-route tail risk. Mine supply losses from Grasberg (~591kt), QB2 suspension, and the new CMOC TFM strike in DRC continue to tighten concentrate markets — TC/RC has collapsed to -$66.40/t. The June 30 Commerce Section 232 report deadline is 8 days away, representing the next binary catalyst for cathode tariff policy. This report provides procurement-specific guidance with quantified scenario analysis and forward contract recommendations.