Coking Coal Intelligence Report — August 12, 2026

BUYER POSITION: DEFENSIVE

Coking coal is at $231/t FOB Australia PLV HCC (Argus July 13 assessment; July SGX average $233.08/t), holding above the post-spike floor as the Shanxi supply recovery proves slower and more volatile than headline restart counts suggest. Only one of the 20 mines in Qinyuan county — the epicentre of the May 22 Liushenyu disaster — had resumed operations by July 1, and a further Changzhi mine (1.8 Mtpa) was halted by inspections on August 6. DCE coking coal futures rebounded to RMB 1,337.5/t (+RMB 27 d/d) on August 12 as traders re-priced the uneven restart. India remains the structural demand anchor: met coal imports reached 32.4 Mt in January–May (+15% y/y), with S&P Global projecting 94 Mt for 2026. Forecast dispersion is wide — BMI $225/t, UBS $235/t, S&P $186/t CFR China, Australian Treasury ~$140/t by end-2026 — reflecting a market where prompt tightness and forward softness coexist. The SGX curve has moved from contango to softening/backwardation into Q3. Buyer positioning: DEFENSIVE, with opportunistic layering into Q4 2026 at $200-220/t.

PLV HCC FOB Australia

$231

/t · +12.7% YoY

DCE Coking Coal Futures

1,337.5

CNY/t · +27 d/d

Shanxi CCI (Domestic)

1,984

CNY/t EXW · +13 w/w

SGX Curve

Softening

backwardated Q3

Australia Exports H1

74.1M

t · +2.4% y/y

India Met Imports Jan-May

32.4M

t · +15% y/y

Mongolia Met Exports

~60M

t 2025 · China-only

52-Week Range

$190-253

FOB AUS PLV

5 Facts · 11 Estimates

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Data status: Coking coal benchmark PLV HCC FOB Australia from Argus assessment ($231/t as of July 13, 2026) and SGX TSI July average ($233.08/t). DCE futures from DCE settlement (August 12). Shanxi restart data from Mysteel/BigMint surveys. Demand data from Indian customs (Interocean), S&P Global, IEA. Forecasts from BMI/Fitch, UBS, S&P Global, Australian Treasury. All coking coal prices are assessment-based (no exchange spot). Data gaps noted in Data Transparency.