Coking coal markets continue to normalise with SGX front-month at $233/t FOB Australia, down from the $249 June peak. The Shanxi mine restart program has returned approximately 135 of 155 closed mines to operation, restoring ~285,000 t/day of production capacity — this has been the primary driver behind the 7% m/m price decline. India's structural steel demand growth (+32% y/y met coal imports to 73.53 Mt in FY2025) provides a durable floor near $200/t, while new supply entering the market (>10 Mt in 2026 per UBS) caps upside. The SGX futures curve has flattened from contango to near parity, signaling the market sees limited further downside near term. The 3% Chinese tariff on non-FTA suppliers (Russia, Mongolia, US, Canada) continues to create a structural cost advantage for Australian HCC under the 0% China-Australia FTA rate. With ~20 mines still closed in Shanxi and Queensland cyclone season approaching, the risk skew remains two-sided — but the path of least resistance is continued gradual moderation toward $200-220/t by Q4 2026.
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