Coking coal markets remain elevated at ~$243/t PLV FOB Australia after the May Shanxi mine disaster triggered 155 mine closures (~319,000 t/day, ~10% of Shanxi output). While ~105 of 155 mines have restarted, the pace of production recovery has exceeded expectations, causing SGX futures to decline from their peak. India's structural steel demand growth (+32% y/y met coal imports to 73.53 Mt in 2025) provides a durable demand floor, while China's reliance on Mongolian and Russian coal (~80% of import mix) limits seaborne premium price capture. The 3% Chinese tariff on non-FTA suppliers (Russia, Mongolia, US, Canada) creates a structural wedge favoring Australian suppliers, who pay 0% tariff. With the SGX curve in contango signaling supply normalisation, and over 10 Mt of new supply entering the market in 2026 per UBS, the path of least resistance is gradual moderation from current levels — but remaining supply-side risks (Shanxi restarts, Queensland weather) limit downside to ~$200/t.
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