Three weeks after the Liushenyu mine disaster, 59 coking coal mines remain suspended across Shanxi with 62.9 million tonnes of annual capacity idled as of June 5. Restarted mines are operating at 36% below pre-suspension levels — producing 214,000 tonnes/day versus 332,500 tonnes/day before the May 22 explosion. A June 11 wave of re-suspensions interrupted the supply recovery. The national safety campaign launched June 1 plus discovery of deliberate safety violations at Tongzhou Group point to extended enforcement through mid-July. Australian HCC PLV FOB holds at $243.75/mt — 2.9% above Q1 2026 average of $236.80. India steel demand grew 9% YoY in May, sustaining structural support. Procurement teams should lock 50-60% of Q3 volume at current $238-245/mt FOB Australia range before monsoon restocking competition intensifies.
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