Newcastle thermal coal holds a firm-but-fragile plateau at $131.9/mt (Jul 2026, World Bank) with ICE prompt futures at $129.3/mt (Aug 11) and the Dec-26 contract at $138.7 in contango. Renewed Middle East hostilities keep LNG-to-coal switching active, Indonesia's DSI export centralization advances to September 1, and Barito River force majeure tightens prompt Indonesian supply. China's July imports hit a 2026 high of 28.1 Mt on constrained domestic output; India is the counterweight, pulling seaborne arrivals to an 11-month low on price sensitivity. A super El Niño adds cooling-demand upside into Q4. The structural trade is declining (IEA), so buyers should lock 50% of Q3-Q4 volumes at $125-135/mt while holding optionality for early-2027 normalization toward $110-120.