Newcastle thermal coal at $138.50/mt (Jun 2026, World Bank) with ICE prompt futures at $126.80/mt as the post-peace correction continues through July. The confluence of Indonesia's Danantara export centralization (Sep 2026), Shanxi mine safety clampdown constraining Chinese domestic output, and persistent LNG supply deficit from Qatar Ras Laffan damage continues to support physical tightness even as Hormuz risk premium unwinds. Global seaborne supply at 985 Mt (-5.7% YoY) faces ~70 Mt of incremental APAC demand from LNG-to-coal switching. The market has corrected ~15% from the $150 early-June peak on risk premium deflation, but the structural supply-demand deficit remains intact. Buyers should lock 50% of Q3 volumes at $120-135/mt while maintaining optionality for a peace-driven normalization toward $100-115/mt by Q4.