Newcastle thermal coal at $136.86/mt (May 2026, World Bank) with post-peace ICE futures at $128.40/mt with Hormuz ship movements. The convergence of Indonesia's rolling blackouts (Phase 1 from Sep 2026), the Shanxi mine safety clampdown, Indonesia Danantara export controls, and persistent LNG supply deficits from Ras Laffan damage has created a market where physical supply tightness persists even as post-peace normalization reduces prompt pricing. The US-Iran interim peace agreement has removed the Strait of Hormuz risk premium, with 10 Japan-linked vessels exiting the strait on Jul 6. Yet the underlying supply-demand deficit remains: global seaborne supply at 985 Mt (-5.7% YoY) faces 70 Mt of incremental APAC demand from LNG-to-coal switching. Buyers should lock 50% of Q3 volumes at current levels while maintaining optionality for a Hormuz reopening that could drive prices toward $110/mt by Q4.