Newcastle thermal coal at $136.86/mt (May 2026, World Bank) with post-peace ICE futures retreating toward $129/mt. The convergence of Indonesia's export centralization (Phase 1 from Sep 2026), the Shanxi mine safety clampdown, and lingering LNG supply deficits from Ras Laffan damage has created a market where physical tightness persists even as the geopolitical risk premium deflates. The US-Iran interim peace agreement has removed the Strait of Hormuz supply risk from forward pricing, pulling prompt prices off three-year highs of $150/mt. Yet the underlying supply-demand deficit remains: global seaborne supply at 985 Mt (-5.7% YoY) faces 70 Mt of incremental APAC demand from LNG-to-coal switching. Buyers should lock Q3 volumes at current levels while maintaining optionality for downside scenarios from a potential Hormuz reopening.