Brent crude at $76.58/bbl (++3.26% WoW) as the normalization selloff moderates following the EIA's sharp July STEO revision. The EIA cut its 2026 Brent forecast 13.7% to $82/bbl and projects $65 for 2027 as Hormuz flows recover. The forward curve has shifted from backwardation to mild contango, signaling the market is pricing a surplus outlook. However, the EIA sees Brent averaging $74 in Q3 2026 — just 3% below current levels — suggesting limited further downside at current pricing. OPEC+ agreed a 188 kb/d quota increase from August. US crude production at a record 13.8 mb/d. For procurement, current levels represent an OPPORTUNISTIC entry point: the asymmetric distribution favors locking medium-term supply with limited near-term downside while avoiding long-dated contracts given the bearish 2027 outlook.
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