Thesis: Brent crude has corrected 45% from its April high of $138/bbl as markets price the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the selloff has overshot near-term fundamentals. Three reinforcing forces drive the decline: accelerating Hormuz transit resumption, demand destruction (-1.1 mb/d per EIA/IEA), and OPEC+'s shift toward market share recovery. Yet OECD inventories drain at 3.8 mb/d and are projected to reach their lowest since 2003 by year-end. The market prices a smooth reopening that the execution risk does not warrant — demining, insurance, and Iranian nuclear negotiations remain unresolved. For crude buyers, the risk-reward favors strategic accumulation. Near-term downside to $65-70/bbl remains plausible on smooth reopening, but a 25% tail risk of Hormuz re-escalation could spike Brent back above $100 in days. Best course: maintain coverage at spot with tactical puts at $70; prepare to lock 12-month term volumes if Brent trades to $65-68.