Brent Crude Oil Intelligence Report

Brent crude collapsed 33% from the April high to $78.83/bbl after the US-Iran peace deal was announced June 13, reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The market is pricing rapid supply normalization, but physical reality lags: 11.3 mb/d of Gulf production remains shut in, US SPR is at a 43-year low, and OECD inventories are on track to fall below 2.3 billion barrels — the lowest since 2003. Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 2026 forecast to $80/bbl; Barclays keeps $100. The procurement window is narrow — the first 60 days post-deal offer opportunistic pricing before China restocking and summer peak demand tighten the market.