Brent crude is recovering from a 22% correction off the April 30 high of $126.10, trading at $97.62 as of June 3. The market is torn between escalating geopolitical risk in the Middle East and growing demand destruction concerns. IEA warns of historically low inventories before the summer peak; HSBC flags a super-squeeze. Rystad sees $180 oil if the Iran situation escalates. The base case favors $85-105 through Q3, with the balance of risks tilted to the upside.
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