Market diagnosis: Aluminum trades at $3,156/mt LME cash — up 2.5% from last week's $3,080 as the ceasefire-driven correction finds a structural floor near $3,000-3,100. The forward curve has reverted to mild backwardation ($3/t), signaling that physical tightness is reasserting after the risk-premium unwind. The deficit remains intact at 600-720kt for 2026. LME stocks at 287,725t are down 41% YTD and approaching 20-year lows. EGA's Al Taweelah smelter restart is progressing (89 of 1,262 cells back online) but full recovery will take 12 months. The market is consolidating above a deficit-supported floor: buyers should prepare coverage layers at $3,000-3,200/mt.