Market diagnosis: Aluminum continues to correct from June peaks as the ceasefire-driven risk premium unwinds, with LME cash falling to $3,080/mt — the lowest since March and 18% below the June 2 peak of $3,752. The front of the curve is in contango (-$7/mt cash-3M) for the second consecutive week. Yet the structural deficit remains intact: Wood Mackenzie estimates a 720kt global shortfall for 2026, LME stocks at 298,775t are down 38% YTD, and Gulf smelter restorations (EGA Al Taweelah, Alba) will take 12+ months. The price correction reflects macro-driven paper liquidation overwhelming tight physical fundamentals — a divergence that historically favors the underlying deficit. Procurement teams should watch $3,000-3,100/mt as a potential entry zone for 3-6 month forward layers.