INTELLIGENCE REPORT
BUYER: DEFENSIVE

Aluminum Intelligence Report

June 29, 2026 · Intelligence Report · Aluminum (LME / COMEX / SHFE)

Market diagnosis: Aluminum markets remain in correction after falling 19% from May's $3,900 peak, with the LME cash price settling at $3,164/mt — the lowest since March 2026. The ceasefire-driven macro selloff has pushed the front of the curve into contango for the first time since the Gulf crisis began. However, the structural deficit remains intact: JPMorgan projects a 1.9 Mt supply shortfall for 2026, LME stocks are critically low at 322kt, and Gulf smelter repairs will take 12+ months. The price correction reflects macro fear (China weakness, peace speculation) overwhelming near-term fundamentals — a divergence that historically resolves with a snap-back. Procurement teams should use the dip to layer in 3-6 month forward coverage, not reduce positions.

LME Cash
$3,164
$/mt · June 29, 2026
LME 3M
$3,176
$/mt · Contango $12
COMEX
$3,697.5
$/mt · +1.31% daily
SHFE
CNY 24,560
CNY/mt · +0.04%
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Price data from LME, COMEX & SHFE settlement · Full report includes 17 sections with charts, decision matrix, and scenario framework.