Market diagnosis: Aluminum markets face a structural supply crisis after Gulf smelter disruptions removed ~2.4 Mt/y of Western production capacity — the largest single supply shock in the metal's history. LME stocks have plunged 31% since February to ~315kt, covering less than 4 days of global demand. The ceasefire-and-correction phase (June) pulled prices from $3,797 to $3,400/mt, but physical backwardation and depleted inventories suggest any supply normalization is months away. A permanent supply deficit of >1 Mt persists even in Hormuz-reopening scenarios. Procurement teams should lock in forward coverage before the market reprices the structural shortfall.