Market diagnosis: The global crude aluminum market is in a structural deficit crisis — Strait of 3Mt/yr of Western capacity removed; EGA Al Taweelah + Alba Bahrain severely disrupted. WTI crude at $3,536/bbl reflects demand destruction (-420 kb/d yoy) and long liquidation from elevated levels, not a fundamental easing. The deficit is still ~1.8 mb/d. This report provides procurement-specific guidance with quantified scenario analysis and forward contract recommendations.