The aluminum market is in a structural deficit crisis after Iranian missile/drone strikes on March 28 permanently removed ~3Mt/yr of Western capacity, combined with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February. LME cash at $3,608/mt reflects a -4.9% weekly pullback from the June 1 high of $3,796 — a buying opportunity, not a reversal. The US Midwest premium has surged to a record ~$2,529/t, pushing all-in delivered cost above $6,000/t for US buyers. The 50% Section 232 tariff on primary aluminum adds approximately $1,900/t to imported costs. This report covers the full supply-demand balance, cost impact across regions, scenario framework, and actionable forward contract recommendations.
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