LME aluminum cash settled at $3,855/mt on June 2 — the highest in four years. The cash-to-3M spread widened to $97/t backwardation, the steepest since 2007. Gulf smelter closures from the Middle East conflict have removed an estimated 2.4 million tonnes from global supply. JPMorgan projects a 1.9 million tonne deficit for 2026. Exchange inventories sit at a 4-month low with cancelled warrants surging. This report covers price structure, supply-demand balance, inventory positioning, tariff risk, and forward contracting strategy.
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