LME zinc stocks recorded the sharpest daily decline among base metals on May 28, falling 1.41 percent to 108,400 tonnes. The drawdown signals ongoing near-term physical tightness, with exchange inventories remaining at levels that have historically supported elevated prices.
The immediate supply picture contrasts sharply with the medium-term outlook. Significant new mine supply is expected over 2025-2027 through restarts and expansions: Kipushi in the DRC is ramping to 280,000 t/yr in 2026, Bunker Hill is commissioning in early 2026, and the Aljustrel mine in Portugal has restarted.
In Africa, production is set to more than double and potentially surpass Australia. New greenfield capacity including Tala Hamza in Algeria and a new zinc circuit at Asmara in Eritrea are scheduled to come online through late 2026-2027. Expansion projects at Rosh Pinah and Vedanta's Gamsberg will add significant tonnage toward mid-2026.
Fastmarkets forecasts the average LME zinc price at $3,218 per tonne for 2025, with a slight increase in early 2026 as regional disparities persist. However, prices are projected to soften as global surpluses build through 2026-2027. Spot treatment charges are expected to appreciate as rising raw material supply supports smelter growth.