Global mined zinc production surged 4.8% in 2025 after three years of contraction, per ILZSG. Restarts at Almina-Minas Aljustrel (Portugal), Bunker Hill (Idaho), and China's Huoshaoying mine have added significant tonnage.
ILZSG forecasts 2.4% growth in 2026 to 12.8Mt as new capacity ramps up. This should gradually alleviate concentrate tightness.
However, smelter output faces headwinds. SMM reports increased Chinese smelter maintenance through Q2 with further production declines expected in June.
Concentrate treatment charges show early recovery signs as mine growth outpaces smelter capacity, improving smelter margins.
The improving supply picture suggests the worst zinc tightness may be behind the market. Elevated prices should persist through Q3 before mine gains reach refined markets.
The improving supply picture suggests the worst zinc tightness may be behind the market. Elevated prices should persist through Q3 before mine gains reach refined markets.