The depletion of tin concentrate stockpiles in China marks a critical phase in the supply crisis. Yunnan Tin Group and Yunnan Chengfeng — the two largest Chinese tin smelters — have drawn down concentrate inventories by 38% since January as the Myanmar suspension entered its third year. Industry estimates suggest that remaining Chinese concentrate stockpiles will last 40-50 days at current consumption rates, based on China Antaike data.
Alternative concentrate sources are unable to close the gap. The DRC's Bisie mine is operating at near-maximum capacity of 12,000 tonnes per year, and Alphamin's Mpama South has plateaued at 8,000 tonnes. Australia's Renison Bell mine added 500 tonnes of annual capacity through its Rentails project, but this is a marginal increment relative to the 30,000-tonne Myanmar shortfall.
The deficit is forcing smelter capacity reductions in China. Yunnan Tin Group reduced refined tin output by 12% in May compared with Q1 monthly averages, citing concentrate availability constraints. Yunnan Chengfeng operated at 72% capacity in May, down from 88% in January. Combined, the two smelters account for 55% of China's 185,000-tonne annual refined tin capacity.
The refined metal deficit is gradually being felt in physical supply chains. Premiums for LME-deliverable tin in Rotterdam have risen to $280-320/mt over LME cash, up from $150-180/mt in January. In Shanghai, the domestic tin premium to SHFE cash has widened from CNY 2,000/mt to CNY 4,500/mt, reflecting the squeeze on concentrate availability at Chinese smelters.
The tin market deficit is accelerating, not moderating. With no indication that Myanmar will resume mining operations and alternative supply fully saturated, prices above $60,000/mt are increasingly likely in H2 2026. Buyers should secure maximum forward coverage at current levels, as each successive month of deficit pulls more inventory out of the system.