The tin market is experiencing its most severe supply crisis since the Indonesian export ban of 2021. Myanmar's Wa State — which supplied 70% of China's tin concentrate imports before the 2023 mining moratorium — has maintained the suspension of all mining operations. Production data from China Customs shows Myanmar concentrate imports at just 4,500 tonnes of contained tin in Q1 2026, down 65% year-on-year from 12,900 tonnes in Q1 2025.
The supply gap is being partially filled by increased output from the DRC's Bisie mine, which ramped to 12,000 tonnes annualized in Q1 2026, and higher throughput at Alphamin's Mpama South deposit. However, these sources cannot fully compensate for the Myanmar shortfall. Global mined tin output was 78,000 tonnes in Q1 2026, down 3.5% year-on-year despite production increases outside Myanmar.
LME tin inventories have fallen to 4,200 tonnes, representing just 2.3 weeks of global consumption. The backwardation from cash to three-months has widened to $200/mt, reflecting the urgent physical tightness. Off-warrant stocks — metal held outside LME warehouses — are estimated at 2,500-3,000 tonnes, providing only a thin additional buffer.
China's Yunnan Tin Group — the world's largest tin producer — has maintained full capacity utilization by utilizing concentrate stockpiles and sourcing from alternative origins. However, the company warned in its May operational update that concentrate inventories had fallen to 45 days of consumption, down from 72 days in January 2026, indicating that the feedstock pipeline is depleting.
The tin supply crisis has no near-term solution. Myanmar's Wa State has shown no indication of resuming mining operations. Buyers must secure supply through term contracts and consider strategic stockpiling at current levels, as further price appreciation toward $60,000/mt is likely if the deficit deepens.