Silver markets its fifth consecutive annual deficit in 2026, narrowing to ~80Moz as PV thrifting reduces demand. Above-ground stocks at the lowest in 5 years.

Mine supply constrained by silver's by-product status. Output determined by base metal economics, growing only 2% in 2026.

Recycling supply slow to respond to higher prices due to long product lifecycles and collection infrastructure limits.

UBS revised its deficit forecast lower citing PV thrifting but maintains a structural deficit will persist.

The declining stock buffer is the most important risk. Any disruption in Mexico, Peru, or China could trigger a rapid price spike.

What this means for buyers

The declining stock buffer is the most important risk. Any disruption in Mexico, Peru, or China could trigger a rapid price spike.