The Philippines shipped approximately 54 million wet tonnes of nickel ore in 2024, of which 43.5 million tonnes went to China and 10.35 million tonnes to Indonesia. (FACT: SMM, Argus) Export earnings in 2025 surged to $1.47 billion, up from $1.04 billion in 2024, even as the average LME nickel price fell from $16,814/t to $15,162/t during the same period — meaning the volume increase more than compensated for the price decline. (FACT: Philippine Statistics Authority, 2025)
China remained the largest buyer, taking 66% of Philippine nickel ore exports in 2025, though down from 78% in 2024 as Indonesia increased its own imports of Philippine ore to feed its NPI and HPAL plants. The shift signals that even Indonesia — the world's largest nickel producer — needs to supplement its domestic ore supply. (FACT: PNIA, SMM, 2025)
The structural question for the nickel market is whether the Philippines will follow Indonesia's path. The Philippine Senate passed a bill in February 2025 to phase in a ban on unprocessed nickel ore exports by 2030, emulating Indonesia's successful downstreaming strategy. However, a mooted near-term outright ban was vetoed, meaning ore exports continue for now without immediate restrictions. (FACT: Philippine Senate Bill, Reuters, 2025)
The PNIA and government officials have emphasized positioning the Philippines as a larger participant in critical minerals supply chains, including potential domestic processing. Unlike Indonesia, which has abundant coal-fired power to fuel its smelters, the Philippines faces higher energy costs and less developed infrastructure, making the economics of domestic processing more challenging. (FACT: PNIA, Industry reports, 2026)
The Philippines supplies approximately 95% of global raw nickel ore exports. Any restriction on Philippine ore flows — whether through a formal ban or de facto tightening — would have an outsized impact on the NPI and ferronickel supply chain, which depends on laterite ore. A 2030 timeline is distant, but the signal matters: the era of freely available nickel ore is ending. Countries are following Indonesia's playbook of resource nationalism. For procurement, this strengthens the case for diversifying nickel sources and investing in recycling and secondary supply chains. The Philippine ore question is the next policy risk after Indonesia's quota cut.