Both Johnson Matthey and WPIC project a palladium surplus in 2026, the first since 2012. After 14 years of deficits exceeding 8 Moz cumulative, the balance has shifted.
WPIC projects recycling supply rising by 1.3 Moz/year by 2028, driving sustained surpluses from 2026.
Autocatalyst recycling is the most dynamic swing variable, with double-digit growth forecast as higher prices incentivize recovery.
The surplus shift removes the structural price floor. The market is discovering a new equilibrium.
Long-term contracts should include price re-opener clauses. Risk is skewed to the downside.
What this means for buyers
Long-term contracts should include price re-opener clauses. Risk is skewed to the downside.