Despite bearish fundamentals, supply risk from US policy remains elevated. Section 232 investigations and anti-dumping proceedings target Russian PGM imports.
Heraeus notes geopolitical risks remain high, with uncertainty about potential PGM tariffs.
Norilsk Nickel maintains stable ~2.3 Moz output, but logistical disruptions related to sanctions periodically constrain flows.
A supply disruption would create a sharp but likely temporary price spike before structural surplus resumes.
Maintain diversified supply sources and be prepared to secure premium non-Russian material if sanctions tighten.
What this means for buyers
Maintain diversified supply sources and be prepared to secure premium non-Russian material if sanctions tighten.