Spot palladium at $814/oz, the lowest since August 2024 and down ~87% from its 2021 peak. Structural ICE decline, Pt substitution, and rising recycling drive the fall.
Johnson Matthey forecasts 6% demand decline in 2026 as gasoline vehicle output falls and Pt substitution continues.
The substitution trend remains a primary headwind. Automakers continue replacing Pd with lower-cost Pt in gasoline catalysts.
UBS cut its price forecast to $1,400/oz, citing the expected surplus. Improved recycling adds significant secondary supply.
Buyers should minimize forward commitments and prefer spot purchases given the negative price outlook.
What this means for buyers
Buyers should minimize forward commitments and prefer spot purchases given the negative price outlook.