Spot palladium has corrected sharply to approximately $814 per ounce as of late May 2026, the lowest level since August 2024. The metal experienced a dramatic rally from 2025 lows near $900/oz to January 2026 highs above $1,900/oz, an 87 percent surge in approximately 12 months, before the current correction.
The price reversal reflects a structural rebalancing of the palladium market. The dominant demand driver, gasoline autocatalysts, faces headwinds from vehicle electrification and the growing substitution of palladium by lower-cost platinum in gasoline catalyst formulations.
Despite the correction, palladium remains approximately 45 percent higher than a year earlier, indicating the market is far from distressed. The price action reflects the market grappling with competing narratives: near-term supply deficits versus the longer-term demand erosion from the EV transition.
Analyst forecasts for 2026 average prices range widely, reflecting this uncertainty. A Reuters/LBMA poll from October 2025 anticipated a 2026 average of approximately $1,275/oz, while some banks forecast as high as $1,600/oz depending on the pace of autocatalyst substitution and Russian supply stability.