The nickel-stainless steel market is finding equilibrium as Indonesia's NPI sector adjusts to lower ore quotas. Stainless production grew 3.2% YoY in Q1 2026, absorbing available NPI supply.
Indonesia NPI price rose to ~$15,800/t, an 8% QoQ increase, reflecting tighter ore availability under reduced RKAB allocation.
Global nickel inventories outside China declined to ~165,000t as European and US stainless mills draw down stocks.
Mills increasingly blend NPI with scrap and Class 1 nickel to optimize costs under the new quota regime.
Stainless buyers face stable but vulnerable nickel supply. Contracting should include monthly or quarterly price review clauses.
Stainless buyers face stable but vulnerable nickel supply. Contracting should include monthly or quarterly price review clauses.