LME three-month nickel trades at $18,500-18,900/t in late May 2026, supported by Indonesia's one-third reduction in 2026 ore quotas. The RKAB allocation of ~260Mt marks a sharp drop from 379Mt in 2025.
The quota cut has underpinned prices since late 2025. Nickel surged ~9-10% in January 2026 on AI demand headlines and again in May on NPI reduction news.
SHFE nickel remains tightly linked to LME at CNY 126,130/t, with repeated volatility on shifting Indonesia policy expectations.
The quota targets the NPI sector serving stainless steel, while battery-grade HPAL nickel faces separate dynamics.
Stainless steel buyers face direct upside risk. Battery buyers benefit from structural HPAL surplus. Contracting should differentiate Class 1 vs Class 2 pricing.
Stainless steel buyers face direct upside risk. Battery buyers benefit from structural HPAL surplus. Contracting should differentiate Class 1 vs Class 2 pricing.