Class 1 nickel premium over LME cash has widened to ~$800/t as battery sector consumption grows. Market bifurcation between Class 1 (LME-deliverable, battery grade) and Class 2 (NPI, stainless) is becoming more pronounced.
Battery-grade nickel demand grew ~18% YoY in Q1 2026, driven by EV adoption and stationary energy storage. This demand concentrates in Class 1 forms.
Indonesia HPAL capacity expansion faces delays and cost overruns, constraining battery-grade nickel sulfate flow to the global supply chain.
LME nickel inventories declined to ~73,500t, with available warrants even lower after excluding Russian-brand metal.
Battery supply chain buyers should lock in premium levels. Indonesia HPAL pipeline remains the key variable determining premium direction.
Battery supply chain buyers should lock in premium levels. Indonesia HPAL pipeline remains the key variable determining premium direction.